“Structured risk source analysis: events and consequences involved in pathogen transmission – with examples from Atlantic cod farming (6898)”

Structured risk source analysis: events and consequences involved in pathogen transmission – with examples from Atlantic cod farming

Introduction:

Fish farming world-wide, provides healthy protein rich food that makes up half of the global seafood consumption today. Securing sustainable aquaculture production is thus imperative. Risk assessment play an important role in this process by elucidating the main challenges and associated risk factors. A useful aquaculture risk assessment should provide a sound and starting point for discussions on risk, and contribute to mutual risk understanding and risk acknowledgement among stakeholders.

Methodology:

An approach to environmental risk assessment in aquaculture anchored in the latest thinking in risk science has been developed and thoroughly tested since 2018 (Andersen et al. 2022, Grefsrud et al. 2025).

Results and conclusions:

Analyzing risk to the marine environment from aquaculture activity is often characterized by high complexity, scares data and frequent knowledge gaps. The application of frequency based on probabilities based on hard data as a sole measurement of risk to the marine environment is thus, both problematic and insufficient. In our presentation we argue for a broader and more comprehensive approach to risk that includes experts justified believes, the knowledge perspective, and surprises. Weak knowledge creates uncertainty and with respect to future outcome of events and consequences, and risk increases.

We present an overview of this risk methodology with examples of applications related to disease transmission from Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) farming.

References:

Andersen LB, Grefsrud ES, Svåsand T, Sandlund N (2022) Risk understanding and risk acknowledgement. A new approach to environmental risk assessment in marine aquaculture. ICES J Mar Sci, doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsac028

Grefsrud ES et al. (2025) Risikorapport norsk fiskeoppdrett – Produksjonsdødelighet hos oppdrettsfisk og miljøeffekter av norsk fiskeoppdrett. rapportserie: Rapport fra Havforskningen 2025-14 ISSN: 1893-4536

1. SANDLUND, NINA, INSTITUTE OF MARINE RESEARCH, Presenter
2. Qviller, Lars, Norwegian Veterinary Institute, Author
3. Patel, Sonal, Norwegian Veterinary Institute, Author
4. Weli, Simon, Norwegian Veterinary Institute, Author
5. Skår, Cecilie, INSTITUTE OF MARINE RESEARCH, Author
6. Grefsrud, Elen Sofie, INSTITUTE OF MARINE RESEARCH, Author
7. Andersen, Lasse Berg, INSTITUTE OF MARINE RESEARCH, Author